Soybeans

Introduction In previous posts we have explored ideas on how to construct fundamental models for forecasting the price of corn and soybean. These models used as input parameters the stock-to-usage numbers calculated from the monthly WASDE reports together with the Dollar index, the mean value of crude in the previous month and the Ruble vs Dollar exchange rate. The aim of this report is to extend these results to a spread between two related commodities, in this case corn and Soybeans.

1 Introduction 2 Deterministic Model 3 Probabilistic Model 3.1 United States Stock-to-Usage 3.2 World Stock-to-Usage 3.3 World Stock-to-Usage without China 3.4 Mean Crude 3.5 Dollar Index 4 Ensemble Model 4.1 United States Stock-to-Usage Sensitivity 4.2 Crude Sensitivity 5 Remove Crude 6 Only Crude an United States stock-to-usage 7 Predictions 8 Comments 1 Introduction Here we explore the viability of modelling the price of soybeans as a function of stock-to-usage.