1 Introduction 2 Deterministic Model 2.1 Deterministic Model Sensitivity 2.2 Deterministic Curve Prediction 3 Probabilistic Model 3.1 United States HRW Stock-to-Usage 3.2 United States Total Wheat Stock-to-Usage 3.3 World Stock-to-Usage 3.4 World Stock-to-Usage without China 3.5 Mean Crude 3.6 Dollar Index 3.7 Ruble 4 Ensemble Model 4.1 Crude Sensitivity 4.2 United States HRW Stock-to-Usage Sensitivity 4.3 World Stock-to-Usage Sensitivity 4.